Indonesia’s geothermal resources offer significant opportunities for reliable, low-carbon electricity generation. However, for investors, resource potential alone does not determine whether a geothermal project is commercially attractive.
One of the first questions is often:
At what price can the project sell its electricity?
Indonesia’s geothermal electricity pricing framework is currently governed by Presidential Regulation No. 112 of 2022. The regulation establishes a ceiling tariff based on project capacity, operating period, and location.
Understanding this framework is important—but a ceiling tariff should not be interpreted as a guaranteed return or an automatic selling price.
A ceiling tariff, referred to in the regulation as the Highest Benchmark Price, is the maximum benchmark for electricity purchased by PT PLN (Persero) from qualifying renewable energy projects.
For geothermal projects, the applicable ceiling depends on:
The installed generation capacity
The project’s geographic location
The operating period following the Commercial Operation Date, or COD
The agreed electricity price is incorporated into the Power Purchase Agreement, or PPA. Therefore, the published ceiling represents the upper boundary of the pricing framework—not necessarily the final tariff received by every project.
The tariff applies from the project’s COD and is divided into two periods:
Years 1–10
Years 11–30
The location factor applies only during the first ten years. The regulation presents these tariff stages without an escalation mechanism. The government may periodically evaluate the ceiling-price framework, while the commercial terms of an individual project remain governed by its executed PPA.
Under Presidential Regulation No. 112 of 2022, the geothermal electricity ceiling tariffs are:
In the table, F represents the location factor.
The tariff structure provides a higher benchmark for smaller projects, reflecting their more limited economies of scale. During the first ten years, the location factor also provides a higher benchmark for projects developed outside Indonesia’s main electricity and infrastructure centres.
The location factor differentiates the ceiling tariff according to the project’s geographic area.
Certain small islands and designated island groups have different factors. For example, the factor increases to 1.25 for small islands in Nusa Tenggara and to 1.30 for small islands in Maluku and North Maluku.
The higher factor can help recognise some of the additional costs and execution challenges associated with remote locations, including logistics, limited infrastructure, and smaller electricity systems.
However, it does not automatically compensate for every site-specific challenge. The actual cost impact of access roads, transmission facilities, drilling logistics, mobilisation, local infrastructure, and supply-chain limitations must still be evaluated separately.
The correct investor question is not simply:
“What is the available geothermal tariff?”
A more useful question is:
“Can this project reliably generate electricity at a cost and risk profile that remains viable within the applicable tariff?”
Answering that question requires an integrated assessment of:
Resource confidence
Well productivity
Development CAPEX
Operating cost
Project schedule
PPA structure
Financing assumptions
Downside scenarios
At Armada, we view tariff analysis as one part of a broader technical-commercial evaluation. By connecting subsurface understanding, drilling strategy, development planning, cost estimation, and financial modelling, project stakeholders can identify the assumptions that create—or potentially erode—investment value.
A geothermal ceiling tariff defines the revenue boundary. Turning that boundary into a bankable project depends on disciplined project selection, risk reduction, and execution.
Regulatory note: This article reflects the regulatory framework reviewed as of September 2026. Project-specific tariff and contractual assumptions should be verified against the latest regulations, procurement requirements, and executed PPA. This article is for general information and does not constitute legal or investment advice.